Short-Term Outlook Indicators (1–5 Day Horizon)

Following our post
👉 Introducing the 1–5 Day Bull% Outlook
we took a deeper dive into which indicators exhibit the strongest short-term prognostic power for the S&P 500 over a 1–5 day horizon.

What we tested

We evaluated several indicators across identical forward windows, focusing on two core quality KPIs:

1. Directional & price accuracy
   How close is the forecast to the realized 1-, 3-, and 5-day SPX close?

2. Range quality & volatility projection
   How precise is the projected forward range—both in terms of containment (% of outcomes inside the range) and range width?
   (Tighter ranges with high containment score higher.)

To provide proper context, we ran the same framework on:

• RSI

• CNN Fear & Greed Index

and compared them against our proprietary indicators:

• Gamma Frontier

• Market Dashboard Index

• Bull%

Results at a glance

• Top performers:
  Gamma Frontier, Market Dashboard Index, and Bull% consistently ranked at the top across both KPIs.

• Bottom performers:
  RSI and CNN Fear & Greed lagged in directional accuracy and overall score.

• Range behavior:
  All indicators produced reasonably tight forward ranges, but our proprietary toolbox showed superior balance between precision and containment.

Conclusion

1. Our proprietary indicator suite outperforms RSI and CNN Fear & Greed in short-term (1–5 day) SPX forecasting.

2. All tested indicators generate usable volatility ranges,

3. Forward focus:
   Rather than relying on a single signal, we will increasingly look for multi-indicator alignment to further increase probabilistic edge.

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